ALTMAN is looking to cash out stock options before OPENAI crashes and burns. much like spez did with reddit.
It would be hilarious if in the end this would cause the bubble to burst
I’m an atheist, but i pray this happens I’m so sick of AI.
Wishful thinking
hope he brings thiel down with him too.
It does seem like someone wants their investments back and pass on the money black hole over to the public.
I’d be surprised if they can continue their business as is after an IPO.
They are going to enshittify so hard trying to get their money back… it’s too bad, too. I use ChatGPT a fair bit for various things. But eras end and this could herald the end of it being useful to me. At some point I was always just going to set up my own local AI on a server here at home. Hopefully hardware prices can recover a bit before I feel compelled to move on from ChatGPT.
I saw an article talking about how prices for AI are cheap as hell right now cuz they’re trying to get people used to not thinking (or programing) for themselves. Then when people are dependent on it they’re planning on jacking the price up.
That’s only partially true.
The other half is that “almost as good” AI like GLM’s coder plan, Kimi, and dozens of other providers are dirt cheap. And getting cheaper, fast.
The prices are already going up, look at anthropic’s price hikes, or the GitHub copilot ones. You’re right it is just the start though.
Axios just announced that AI is now more expensive than hiring a human.
SpaceX is going public at $2 Trillion dollars on like $12b of revenue.
They’re trying to foist the bag on to index funds.
How does that even happen? They just decide what their valuation is??
Yes.
Elon musk had SpaceX buy XAi which bought Twitter all for increasingly more money from himself. The valuation is based on that. Somehow.
Apparently they claim their TAM is $28T because identifying trillion dollar businesses is their core “repeatable business model”.
Also uhh… don’t look at their declining real revenue, or that they just bought $1B of depreciating assets from Tesla like $138M of cyber trucks. That definitely was not because they weren’t selling.
Yes I believe the TAM or value or whatever of a single company is 12% of all wealth in the U.S. That makes sense.
I have to be honest, I don’t know how any investor read their S1 and still wants to put money in this thing.
I mean, I know Carlin said it’s a big club and you’re not in it, but fuck. They’re all in on it.
yes. see also: capitalism
Which means retirement funds
My retirement pension fund has $0 in anything AI or Musk.
How can it be possible?
How in the everloving fuck can that happen?
How are the streets not running with blood?
waves hands
Corruption.
Fire all the regulators, find some shit to pump, get all your buddies in, have the NASDAQ make special rules for you, then everyone who bought in private sells on open when the index funds have to buy in. Many pensions may be legally forced to buy this shit to satisfy regulations.
It’s fucked. Well over 100x revenue multiples at IPO. They just filled their S1.
The market makers are turning index funds into 2008’s CDOs.
Which is insane. CDOs were crazy, but fucking index funds is batshit insane levels of evil. Not just corruption, but all out treason.
Yeah, I’ve been a fan of index investing for a while, but have become very sceptical of the sp500, nasdaq 100, etc. as valuations have become more concentrated.
When so few assets make up such a large portion of the index I think it loses its diversification advantages.
This is why I use international index funds primarily. Small cap is also a solid hedge
For amateur investors, the question to always ask is why does a company with massive private investments need to go public?
Just left a comment a few hours ago essentially echoing this. Sunlight is the best disinfectant, and you can’t hide books from investors.
that’s gonna be wework on meth
Have they finally run out of money and need a new source of cash to burn?
A $35 billion investment from Amazon hinges on OpenAI providing an IPO… So this does reek of desperation one way or another.
Pump and dump, anybody?
We’re getting closer to the bubble popping
I kinda dislike public companies/IPOs :(
Who will fall for the IPOAI rug-pull?
Can someone explain to me why it would be a bad idea to short the fuck out of this stock? I’d like to make money and be a principled human at the same time, but I’m not well versed in the stock market.
You’re a dog you can’t legally invest
Check the rules! I once heard there was no rule that a dog couldn’t be in the NBA.
I think dogs should have the right to vote.
If you have 5 to 10 years, and can afford to lose the money, it sounds like a great idea
afford to lose the money
Yeah that’s the thing about shorting. Nobody knows how much that is. It’s potentially infinite.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
touché
It’s a bad idea because shorting requires a settlement date.
You can’t keep a short the same way that you keep an investment. You need to predict at what time it is worth less than it is now.
It’s also a bad idea, because you can lose more than you invest. If you buy a stock, you can only lose the purchase price of that stock. If you short it, there’s no upper limit to how much you can lose if the stock keeps rising. The people holding the stocks will do anything to keep inflating the stock price, even if it’s evident to everyone that it is a bubble. As long as they can keep throwing money at it, they can keep the price going up.
I’m not well versed in the stock market.
This is a good reason not to short.
principled human
This is an even better reason not to short.
Thanks for the reply. This is the first time someone has explained stock options so simply to me.
Its the explanation of the old adeage “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Filing for IPO these days is just the same as having a live hand grenade in your hands and trying to sell that as quickly as possible to a nice group of people
Sam alttab is getting out and swapping to something else
China won the game. Their models are cheap and available and free weights.
Openai will never make any money. They realized it’s a high time to sell so. Wouldnt give a dime
They’re also behind Anthropic when it comes to expensive frontier models.
I wouldn’t buy their stock even if I was looking to invest in AI.
Their reputation is also a bit in the toilet, because people hear “AI” and think of ChatGPT.
So “man hospitalised after AI suggested he put glue on pizza for tackiness” would have people think he was using it, when he might well have been using a different LLM.
And, as I understand it, Anthropic hasn’t committed as much spending to building out new data centers, and has setup their operations to be GPU agnostic, so they can keep flexibility between NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, and Amazon Trainium, and play the data center pricing game. Anthropic is better positioned to survive an AI winter (and I believe it’s coming soon).
Their models may also be based on US models.
It’ll be hard for derivative models to innovate if their host organism has died.
@Photonic@lemmy.world why are you stalking me to here of all places? (Well, not just here. Very weird.)
Why are you stalking me? I never messaged you here?
Get help.
Forgot you acknowledged I can see you downvoting me?
Honestly dude, calling people out by username for downvoting you isn’t the mic drop that you think it is. It just makes you seem petty.
I figured mods might be curious about the self-appointed community vigilante. Also I am petty.
the self-appointed community vigilante
… you?
Why would I have forgotten?
You’re just a carbuncle of this community, poisoning it with your Trump-like rhetoric. Very little of what I saw was worth an upvote. And apparently from what I read below the pathetic whiny comment that you felt the need to tag a bunch of people in, others agree.
You think you have the truth, but all you have is a shit opinion that you can’t back up for the life of you.
what did you read in my comment here that irked you so much you felt the need to spam downvote it (and many others in different posts)?
Read the comment again. More slowly this time.
People are not “irked” by your comments. They’re just dumb.
It’s Lemmy. Downvotes don’t matter. Get over yourself.
Edit: Looking at your comment history, and wow that’s a lot of downvotes. At that point, most of the downvotes are from you making shit takes than them brigading you.
I thought downvotes were for unhelpful content. Do you disapprove of the link about data centers I posted?
Edit: anything else you want to admit to?
You follow people for downvoting you? Even have a downvote tracker to start with? That’s a new low. Please, find a healthier hobby, this isn’t good for you as much as it is annoying to everyone else.
Distillation isn’t stealing the original model, though. It just uses the models to make synthetic training data to train their own thing. They aren’t stealing the model itself.
Plus, a lot of companies do it. Anthropic’s Claude was calling itself DeepSeek for a while.
It also doesn’t seem like as big a deal as Anthropic and Open AI make it look, IMO. Them treating it like a national security issue where the company gets its models stolen from under its nose just comes across like a media company claiming that every download is a copy they would otherwise have sold at full price, and thus they have accrued trillions of dollars in damages.
I could, in theory, take a bunch of google Gemini outputs, and train a GPT-2 model on them. That doesn’t mean that I’ve recreated Gemini, nor does it mean that i’ve stolen it from Google, either.
To top it all off, it’s not like their services were abused. The companies were presumably paid appropriately for the usage.
I don’t understand how anyone can keep a straight face when they hear an AI company crying about another AI company “stealing” from them while they go before lawmakers and argue that if they weren’t allowed to steal stuff, AI wouldn’t exist… I immediately picture the Always Sunny meme “oh, did someone get addicted to crack” Crying motions.
It’s true.
The field is moving so fast that things can change quickly, but the American labs are so caught up in saddling their models with safety overhead that the recent Chinese models are very close in practical use to the flagship American models if not pulling ahead (Sora vs Seedance 2).
I don’t really need to solve Erdős problems in my day to day. Outside of increasingly edge case eval competition, I’m not sure what OpenAI brings that literally everyone else isn’t also capable of providing (and more).
I’d maybe invest in Anthropic for an IPO if they turned around their own saddling of models and played nicer with open platforms, but if Claude is just going to get more and more anxious due to excessive red teaming and CC fall further and further behind stuff like Hermes Agent, they too are going to fall by the wayside as open models become the dominant inference for open infrastructure.
Can’t wait to see their financials in the excruciating detail that’s required of an IPO filing.
Irrelevant. Meme stocks don’t follow financial rules for valuation. See TSLA.
Where did I mention valuation?
This is not happening.
It’s just posturing.
