First draft of what? The AI* doesn’t know what you’re trying to make, so to use it, you first need to write a prompt to convey to it what you’re trying to convey. If what you’re trying to make takes the form of prose, there’s your first draft already; there’s nothing the AI can add other than padding and replacing your voice with a psychopath’s. But to begin with, if you have the skill to turn a first draft into a final product, it’s almost always going to be faster to just use that skill to create the first draft yourself instead of trying to convey to an AI what it’s supposed to be like. If it isn’t, it’s something that’s so easy to describe that there’s either no value in making it or those few words are already the perfect way to convey it.
Also, this just completely undermines the whole thing:
It still requires oversight and expertise.
The sole virtue AI arguably has, is its accessibility; anyone who can read and write a supported natural language, can make use of it. But the moment it starts requiring expertise, that accessibility becomes worthless. To anyone who is even somewhat serious about what they’re trying to do, that natural language interface just offers far too little control for their purposes.
*) For the purposes of this comment, “AI” refers to the kinds of natural language-driven generative AI heavily marketed by companies like Microsoft, not the general concept of artificial intelligence or even the underlying technology of those products.
Any information that whatever you’re working on hinges upon, you need to already know and have confirmed before you start working on it. So not only did you need to look it up anyway, only you know what aspects of that information are most important for the goals of your work. Of course, there can also be less vital pieces of information that you may consult as you work, like maybe you want to compare the size of something with football fields, to make it harder to understand. Undoubtedly an AI can do that for you, but in the end you still need to look it up to verify it, so you haven’t really saved any time or effort.
It’s a similar kind of story for things like generating PowerPoint slides. Slides based on what? An article? The script? Slides that just summarise the prose make for a terrible presentation and aren’t any better as a starting point for one. Also, anything that can be described using less time and (cognitive) energy than to just write it in Mermaid code, isn’t worth making a diagram out of.
This is comparison makes no sense, because an IDE is the very opposite of AI. There is little value in a person manually performing the same algorithms over and over again, other than maybe for a learning process. So if they can be automated, it just means that people can focus their efforts on doing the work that requires, you know, personhood. AI is the opposite in that it’s useless for procedural automation, and the only thing it can do automatically is the kind of work that can only have value if a person is doing it.