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  • phutatorius@lemmy.zipEnglish
    0·
    12 hours ago

    it’s genuinely a better predictive model than what a statistician would be able to come up with

    OK, let’s see the evidence for that assertion.

    Simply by knowing the price of a contract, I can know with decent accuracy how likely something is to happen.

    A retrospective analysis of the contract prices versus actual outcomes would also be needed. Otherwise, all you’re seeing is an opinion poll conducted on a self-selected sample of people unusually prone to being greedheads. And you have no idea of the mechanisms that shape that market.