Yeah, so far the missiles aren’t very reliable. I doubt the nuclear warheads are much more reliable than that.
And the housing is almost certainly empty shells. (See also that giant hotel that was only built a third of the way so they finished the front of the exterior instead to make it look good.) But I don’t think housing is their problem, it’s food. The land in North Korea isn’t great for farming, prior to the Korean war, the south was agricultural and the north was industrial.
And much like the hotel, this ship looks nice from the front, but if you look closely, or at the sides and the back, it has a lot of blank faces, where the Arleigh Burkes have equipment. I’d be positively gobsmacked if those radomes on the NK ship actually had anything in them, or if the visible antennas were actually attached to a full set of functioning electronic warfare systems.
I know next to nothing about warships, but as long as the buildings aren’t architectural nightmares waiting to collapse, that’s at the very least a roof over some heads that might not have had them before, although I agree that food definitely seems like a bigger issue for them. I think it’s also worth noting that the hotel is a project that was started just under 40 years ago, right before their incredibly devastating famine in the 90s, and by now it might very well be far easier to build fully functional new apartments than to try to fix an aging mega-hotel. If they DO get a solid infrastructure down in their major cities, things like industrial indoor farms might also help lessen their food worries.
I also think, reliable or no, any nuke is deterrent enough for most to not engage, since even one ICBM heading your way is enough to trigger MAD, even if that particular one is a dud.
In pretty much all of these cases it’s a wait and see situation to my eyes. But if the North Korean force projection strategy is indeed a way to ward off foreign interference until they feel safe enough to fully focus on improving material conditions domestically, I honestly wouldn’t be too surprised if average life quality in NK would surpass that of say a poor european country within 50 or so years, maybe even 10 or 20.
Yeah, the biggest deterrent is the huge amount of conventional artillery they have permanently aimed at Seoul. In the event of actual war, it would be massively destructive, no nukes required.
if the North Korean force projection strategy is indeed a way to ward off foreign interference until they feel safe enough to fully focus on improving material conditions domestically, I honestly wouldn’t be too surprised if average life quality in NK would surpass that of say a poor european country within 50 or so years, maybe even 10 or 20.
See the problem here is that they’re not interested in improving domestic conditions. Kim enjoys the personal benefits of running his own little kingdom, so he and his cronies have no reason to change. If they did, they’d lose their power.
If they wanted to improve conditions, all they’d have to do is drop the act, say “hello we would like to trade :)”, and they’d be off to the races. But that would mean admitting Juche idealism isn’t some supreme transformative process.
Yeah, so far the missiles aren’t very reliable. I doubt the nuclear warheads are much more reliable than that.
And the housing is almost certainly empty shells. (See also that giant hotel that was only built a third of the way so they finished the front of the exterior instead to make it look good.) But I don’t think housing is their problem, it’s food. The land in North Korea isn’t great for farming, prior to the Korean war, the south was agricultural and the north was industrial.
And much like the hotel, this ship looks nice from the front, but if you look closely, or at the sides and the back, it has a lot of blank faces, where the Arleigh Burkes have equipment. I’d be positively gobsmacked if those radomes on the NK ship actually had anything in them, or if the visible antennas were actually attached to a full set of functioning electronic warfare systems.
How did these assumptions work out versus Iran?
I know next to nothing about warships, but as long as the buildings aren’t architectural nightmares waiting to collapse, that’s at the very least a roof over some heads that might not have had them before, although I agree that food definitely seems like a bigger issue for them. I think it’s also worth noting that the hotel is a project that was started just under 40 years ago, right before their incredibly devastating famine in the 90s, and by now it might very well be far easier to build fully functional new apartments than to try to fix an aging mega-hotel. If they DO get a solid infrastructure down in their major cities, things like industrial indoor farms might also help lessen their food worries.
I also think, reliable or no, any nuke is deterrent enough for most to not engage, since even one ICBM heading your way is enough to trigger MAD, even if that particular one is a dud.
In pretty much all of these cases it’s a wait and see situation to my eyes. But if the North Korean force projection strategy is indeed a way to ward off foreign interference until they feel safe enough to fully focus on improving material conditions domestically, I honestly wouldn’t be too surprised if average life quality in NK would surpass that of say a poor european country within 50 or so years, maybe even 10 or 20.
Yeah, the biggest deterrent is the huge amount of conventional artillery they have permanently aimed at Seoul. In the event of actual war, it would be massively destructive, no nukes required.
See the problem here is that they’re not interested in improving domestic conditions. Kim enjoys the personal benefits of running his own little kingdom, so he and his cronies have no reason to change. If they did, they’d lose their power.
If they wanted to improve conditions, all they’d have to do is drop the act, say “hello we would like to trade :)”, and they’d be off to the races. But that would mean admitting Juche idealism isn’t some supreme transformative process.