Americans just discovered the weak point of Iran.
It’s game over
CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5 million barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel). A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside the Gulf with no viable alternative. That’s $139M/day, GONE.
PETROCHEMICALS: Iran exported $19.7B in petrochemicals in 9 months of 2024/25, ~$54M/day. Virtually all of it ships through Assaluyeh, Imam Khomeini, and Shahid Rajaee, all inside the blockade zone. No overland route can move these volumes. Another $54M/day, GONE.
IMPORTS: Iran imported $58B in goods in 2025, ~$159M/day. A blockade chokes off industrial inputs, machinery, and consumer goods.
CURRENCY COLLAPSE ACCELERANT: The rial has already cratered from 42,000 to 1.5M per dollar. Banks are limiting withdrawals to $18-30/day. Overall inflation: 47.5%. A blockade eliminating all forex earnings pushes the rial into terminal hyperinflation.
If americans succesfully blockade Iran, the country will collapse in 1 month.
If americans succesfully blockade Iran, the regime will collapse in 1 month.
Berlin by Christmas energy
Which country is more self sustainable Iran or South Korea? Because South Korea industries are grinding to a halt because they can’t get resources through the Hormuz strait. Other asian countries are also very hard pressed, and the Arab countries along the strait are also essentially blocked.
Seen in isolation everything you write seems pretty spot on, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
The only thing that is for sure is that USA has already lost allies, and every day this draws out, USA is alienating the world more.Because South Korea industries are grinding to a halt because they can’t get resources through the Hormuz strait.
Would closing the Strait of Hormuz be thought of as Iran’s “Samsung Option”?
/I’ll see myself out
It’s game over.
That hinges on if the US Navy will board and/or fire on a 3rd party tanker that Iran is letting pass.
Shippers have insurance now and they don’t care about the lives of their crews
With the price of gas, someone will order their ship to test it. If one goes thru, then a bunch will go at once.
For me opening in private tab is enough to get access.
