🚨 KITE Insta Analysis: A 25% US tariff on EU autos would hit Europe’s automotive core hard. In our KITE simulation, 🇩🇪 Germany’s auto-sector output falls by almost €15bn in the short run and about €30bn in the long run. Losses are also sizeable in 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, and 🇸🇪 Sweden.

The broader macro hit is smaller than the sectoral one — but still meaningful. Real value added falls most in 🇸🇰 Slovakia (around -0.85% short run), followed by 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, and 🇸🇪 Sweden. This is what deeply integrated auto supply chains look like under tariff stress.

For 🇩🇪 Germany, the EU remains by far the biggest destination for automotive exports. But outside Europe, the 🇺🇸 US is the single most important market — ahead of 🇨🇳 China and 🇬🇧 the UK. That helps explain why US auto tariffs would bite German industry so directly.

For the EU as a whole, the biggest extra-EU destinations for automotive exports are the 🇺🇸 US and 🇬🇧 UK, followed by 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and 🇨🇭 Switzerland. So even a sector-specific US tariff would hit one of the EU’s most important external export markets.

As always, huge CAVEAT: We don’t have any details beyond “25% on EU automotives”. So these simulations give us direction and sense of magnitude, no “exact” forecast

Source: Julian Hinz on X/Twitter.

  • gian @lemmy.grys.itEnglish
    0·
    13 days ago

    It is something everyone can see:

    • We do not produce enough electricity (tbh, this is going better year over year)
    • The grid is not ready to support that much more electricity by a long shot, especially in all the minor towns/villages/random places outside the bigger cities (which have their fair share of problems anyway)
    • Most of the smaller town has few charging stations (if any) and even if this also is slowly (too slowly) getting better there is simply too much to be done to be in a decent situation by the target date
    • there are still laws that prevent (or make way too easy to stop) the installation personal recharging stations in condos, even if you have your own garage/place.
    • there are many places where you cannot install personal charging station nor public charging station since there is not enough space to do it (no space on the streets, garages too small and so on)
    • you need move also the entire supply chain to EV cars, not only the manufacturers, and this is not happening on the scale it is needed.

    While I agree on the spirit of the law, switching to EV cars are a good idea IF we can solve the problem of recharging them all, but not on the execution.
    Simply setting a date without planning for everything else is plain stupid. Something like Germany did closing the nuclear power plants without any plan about how to replace them if not some vague “renewable energy” charade.

    Not all EU countries are in the same situation, I agree, and manufacturer are only partially responsible for this, most of the responsability is from past governments that did not have the ball, and foresight, to decide for impopular (at the time) solutions that could have made easier today.

    • B0rax@feddit.orgEnglish
      0·
      13 days ago

      No. It is not something everyone can see.

      • how do you come to the conclusion that we do not have enough electricity in 2030 to charge all new EV cars? We are not talking about replacing ALL existing cars, it is only about newly bought ones.
      • how do you come to the conclusion that the grid will not be able to support that? The problem is that at the moment big investments into the energy grid are being stalled. But this is not a hard „it can not be done“ but more a „we don’t want to do anything because big oil is telling us not to“
      • charging stations in small towns are usually not the point anyway. You want lots of high power charging at the highways (which are currently already a lot of and it will only increase over time, more so if the EV market share is growing more). Charging points in smaller towns are. Matter of political will of local politicians.
      • the myth of „you need a 20kw charging station at home or a EV will be useless!!“ is also not true. You can charge an EV just fine at a normal Schuko outlet. I am, in fact, doing that on my daily driver. You do not need any permissions at all.
      • yes, this is one valid concern. But again, we are not talking about today, but a few years from now.
      • and exactly why is this Not happening? Because there are no clear deadlines or guidances. If there is a law that you can not sell combustion engine vehicles after a certain date, trust me, the supply chains will adapt. But you MUST set a date and STICK TO IT. There is simply no other way to make this industry change course.