Thanks for sharing, interesting read and questions. Surely you’ll be down voted here for anything with AI… But c’est la vie.

Ive been doing coding projects in VS code which uses GPT, Claude and Gemini. Woe are the days when my credits are used and only GPT 4.1 is available. Claudes ability to research and architect multi step software solutions is very, very good and it rarely makes messes or spins tires compared to older models from just a few months ago. This is precisely what converted me to ‘whoa - ai’ which is adjacent to ‘pro ai’.

Lately I’ve been experimenting with customizing Gemini via instructions which include a link to a drive folder of md files with specific instructions for different agent tasks, such as performing specific market analysis, doing a news roundup with a specific list of topics and omitting prior reviewed items, etc. The files allow for both complex instructions or lists, as well as some chance to construct memory via logging. Results are a mixed bag, lots of additional function created, lots of mixed results.

Have you considered any tests of more complexity? Something like ‘write a program that…’ I think what will differentiate these models going forward is some have architect capabilities, strategy, insight, decision making, where others are agents - they do specific tasks well but have limits. With that model, the ai architect and it’s ai agents need to work as a team to complete a multi step task.

Statistics, anyone?

If we’re a simple ‘normal’ population, your wife’s idea holds; there should be 1 in 1000 athlete in every 1000 people. to get a 1 in 1000 athletic performance with a 50% confidence you need only take 693 samples. So if many thousands have played, you’d expect to have seen peak performance.

But we aren’t distributed like that. Z score analysis of a measurable sport indicates a known top athlete like Usain Bolt is in the order of 5 standard deviations from the norm (depending what we consider the norm data set). That’s more like 1 in a million to one in 10 million to get a Bolt. Which implies millions need to try (and train) to get a Bolt level performance (3 humans in that tier so far, implies between 3 & 30 million have tried). So a Bolt seems to be reaching human limits, reinforcing the wife position position for that sport - we are approaching the human limit.

But wait - that is a popular sport, with a single simple measure. If there were multiple relevant independent measures (say hitting and pitching, or running and throwing), even just 2, the odds become astronomical of finding the best. A dual 1 in 1000 is a 1 in a million. A dual z=5 athlete is 1 in 12 trillion.

So the implication is that for more complex sports where multiple attributes apply, it is much more likely we have not yet seen peak human capabilities. It’s also much harder to measure and recognize when we do - so props to the legendary players, and keep searching for them. We won’t know how good they really were until we sample (play) the sport for hundreds or thousands of years. Finding peak is incredibly lucky/unlikely for our most popular complex sports.

This is another really good reason to be upset with the 10 yr warranty. It implies a longevity well beyond what this product can do.

And the waste. My god the waste. Piles upon piles of unrecyclable petroleum derived foam. Ok, in relative terms to our modern lifestyle it fits right in, but that’s not good.

And if it lasts half as long as they say, and they won’t touch it at the end of its life, what does that say?!

Fair point. It lasted 4-5 years solid. 6-8 clearly rapid failure.

Quickly is relative to the 10 year warranty.

I paid (usd 5k plus - king size) with a warranty in mind. Was told ‘our material is different, worth it’ - Full sales job. I’m technical, but details matter and they’re proprietary. I trusted the warranty + brand, which was a bad, expensive move.

Realistic expectations - memory foam lasts 4-5 years, more or less depending on pressure and humidity, and should be priced accordingly. YSK!

Thanks. Turns out I’m also mattress shopping! Appreciate the alternative option.