Orban is one of President Donald Trump's key European political allies.

The likelihood Viktor Orbán winning Hungary’s upcoming parliamentary election has dropped since U.S. Vice President JD Vance made a speech endorsing him, according to the latest betting odds.

Speaking at a press conference in Hungary’s capital, Budapest, on Wednesday, Vance said he would help the incumbent prime minister in his election campaign and praised Orbán ahead of the April 12 poll.

  • kbal@fedia.io
    0·
    2 months ago

    The goal of “prediction” markets is to make money for the people who operate them. But sometimes they’re right anyway.

    • FaceDeer@fedia.io
      0·
      2 months ago

      Yes, but they’re set up so that the best way to make that money is to make correct “bets” by whatever means. It’s not like a poker game where the best way to make money is to calculate odds and understand the psychology of the other players, it’s specifically “you make money if you know more about the thing being bet on than other participants.”

      • kbal@fedia.io
        0·
        2 months ago

        As I understand it, the psychology of other participants does come into it in much the same way it does in a poker game or the stock market. One doesn’t strictly bet on the outcome of events — in all such markets that I heard about positions can be taken up and then sold for profit as opinion shifts, before the predictions are ever constrained by actual outcomes.

        • FaceDeer@fedia.io
          0·
          2 months ago

          Sure, but as the market’s resolution date approaches that’s increasingly a gamble. “Suckers” should be harder and hard to find as the outcome becomes more certain. The election’s less than a week away now so I would expect vibe-based participants to be starting to lose their shirts at this point.