The likelihood Viktor Orbán winning Hungary’s upcoming parliamentary election has dropped since U.S. Vice President JD Vance made a speech endorsing him, according to the latest betting odds.
Speaking at a press conference in Hungary’s capital, Budapest, on Wednesday, Vance said he would help the incumbent prime minister in his election campaign and praised Orbán ahead of the April 12 poll.
as a Hungarian, I hope so
As a human, I deeply hope so, too!
He did it to the Pope, what made Orbán think it wouldn’t happen to his campaign?
Came here to say this! The ol’ Reverse Midas!
Betting markets aggregate the opinion of people who make bets on them, weighted according to how much they bet. They are not an estimate of the likelihood of an event happening. This is a common misconception about how they work.
If they took bets from a representative sample of society and everyone bet the same amount, it’d be an aggregate opinion of the public, which is a pretty good way of trying to estimate such likelihoods (using the Wisdom of the Crowd principle) but this is not what they do.
It does still follow the trend that everyone Vance supports has lost their elections. If Musk also got in there to support Orban, it would be the death-rattle to his “leadership”.
Trump won.
That’s just what Elon wants you to think.
Trump clearly has a kind of charisma that appeals to mostly shitty people. Elon and Vance don’t appeal to anyone.
Don’t kid yourself, Elon has more appeal than the president does. As much as I may hate him.
I disagree. Elon can surround himself with people who will simp for his money, but I’ve never seen him work a crowd or charm people.
The goal of prediction markets is to try to surface an “expert” opinion. People who are betting there are presumably deciding their position based on polling data, along with other factors such as how likely they think Orban or others are to cheat the results and how likely events that could change the polling numbers are to occur.
People who decry the “insider trading” that happens in prediction markets are missing that insider trading is exactly the point of something like this. If there’s someone inside Orban’s inner circle who knows something nobody else does that makes them more certain of a particular outcome here, they would be rewarded by making their knowledge “public” by placing bets on the prediction and as a result pushing the odds in some direction based on that knowledge.
There are people who gamble on these markets without any special research or inside knowledge to guide them, just going by their guts, and the goal of prediction markets is that over time these people will lose their money and stop gambling like this. They’re not contributing information and are “punished” for their interference.
The goal of “prediction” markets is to make money for the people who operate them. But sometimes they’re right anyway.
Yes, but they’re set up so that the best way to make that money is to make correct “bets” by whatever means. It’s not like a poker game where the best way to make money is to calculate odds and understand the psychology of the other players, it’s specifically “you make money if you know more about the thing being bet on than other participants.”
As I understand it, the psychology of other participants does come into it in much the same way it does in a poker game or the stock market. One doesn’t strictly bet on the outcome of events — in all such markets that I heard about positions can be taken up and then sold for profit as opinion shifts, before the predictions are ever constrained by actual outcomes.
Sure, but as the market’s resolution date approaches that’s increasingly a gamble. “Suckers” should be harder and hard to find as the outcome becomes more certain. The election’s less than a week away now so I would expect vibe-based participants to be starting to lose their shirts at this point.
People aren’t just betting on a binary choice of who they think will win. They bet based on the current price of each outcome. If you think Magyar has an 80% chance of winning, but the prices for Yes are $0.90 for Magyar and $0.10 for Orban, you buy Orban Yes because it is a better deal. The market should settle out at what the true odds are. The bigger bettors have more say, yes, but they should also presumably have more insight into the outcome, or they wouldn’t risk so much.
Oh, JD Vance, the US politician who flew halfway across the world to campaign for a Hungarian candidate in the Hungarian elections, while complaining that outside countries are trying to influence Hungarian elections?
Way to go, Jorkin.
I hope JD will actively campaign for all the far right parties in Europe. It’s the best thing that could happen to us
So this is what negative charisma looks like
It’s his face. That beard is a sifter that scrubs charisma from the air and stores it in his jowls
So Canada airing a commercial in the U.S. using their own stupid lead loser of a leader (Regan) is interference, but this ugly couch humping twat is able to be over in Hungary, with the moronic Orbán, and that’s not interference?
Kindly fuck off to the entire U.S. administration, right off a cliff. Hypocritical turds.
turns out you can just do things, and consequences depend on who you are
Just grab 'em by the pussy, if you’re a star they let you do it!
First the pope. Now Orban. JD Vance is the kiss of death.
Are these people the four horsesmen? RFK - Pestilence Hegseth - War JD - Death Trump - Famine
The brainworm did die inside RFK, so I would say RFK is famine and Trump is Pestilence
He should hang out with Netanyahu and Trump more.
Why are we reporting on the uneducated opinions of degenerate addicts as if it’s scientific?
according to the latest betting odds.
Oh fuck off already Newsweek.
*according to the latest betting odds.
Wtf is this garbage?! Hungary might be past getting reliable surveys in the population, but odds on Polymarket are not a reliable replacement.
Sadly, this is the future of corpo news. Polymarket odds are not a reliable indicator of anything in reality; but if the odds tell a story that the corpo wants to push, you’d better believe they’ll run with it.
I can’t wait for the eventual documentary about poly market, how it started, how the owners did insane things and nobody objected and how could THIS possibly have happened???
Uh…thanks JD?
