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Cake day: February 27th, 2025

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  • Having worked Silicon Valley through two boom-and-bust cycles, my impression is that these people hurt because they don’t understand their success. What I mean is that the Internet is a random multiplier: if you have the right idea at the right time and the right structure, you become almost infinitely rich. If you lack anything in the combination, you get nothing.

    Take Facebook: the idea had been floating around for a while, but successive implementations suffered from technical, then legal issues. Then Zuck comes along, steals the idea, implements it successfully and boom, you have an infinillionaire. But when the same guy comes up with the next idea, it fails. Then the next one fails. Then the Metaverse happens and the failure is astounding.

    It’s basically a lottery, where your startup is the ticket. One person wins, a million plays for nothing. The winner is selected at random.

    But people hate that idea, so they come up with stupid “logic” justifying why Zuck won and Yang (Yahoo!) failed. You can’t imagine how many people in Silicon Valley devour Ayn Rand’s ideology, how many believe in genetic racial superiority, and other fairy tales. I was always surprised they didn’t go for divine intervention, but they are largely agnostic.






  • I think it was a discretionary move, and an unusual one at that. Normally, the FBI does not comment on pending investigations of public officers at all. This is doubly the case near an election, to avoid the appearance of favoritism and impropriety.

    In 2016, rumor was that the (allegedly highly pro-Trump) Manhattan office of the FBI was going to announce that the email investigation had been reopened. It would have been for political reasons, but that seemed to have been part of the calculus.

    Comey then decided to come out and make the statement himself, making the Manhattan office’s parallel move redundant. At the time, it was thought that he (a) believed that Clinton would win, anyway, and (b) thought the move would give him credentials for future office when the Republicans were back in power.