Have we already reached a tipping point for the USD as a reserve currency?
If not will this make that happen?
Because the real “shit hits the fan” moment will be when the rest of the World dumping USD assets (most notably, Treasuries) starts snowballing as those still holding assets valued in USD start getting hit by dollar devaluation due to others having dump USD assets, pushing them to sell dollars and dollar-denominated assets to avoid further losses.
Given just how large of a fraction of their currency is held by foreigners, a snowballing aversion to holding dollars is the kind of thing that can result in hyperinflation in the US.
Somehow, even while blaming tRump for their plight, Republican voters will continue to support tRump, even as they lose everything they and their family have. It’s so fucked up!
Why are we typing Trump as tRump though?
How do I make money from this?
That’s a surprisingly more complex question that it seems.
Which money? Dollars, Euros, Yen, something else?
Unless you’re a professional investor, it really depends on which currency you spend for your day to day or big ticket items.
So first I’ll answer a slightly different but related question: “How do I protect myself from this if I’m American?”
- Move your savings/investments to assets which are not denominated in USD (for example, stocks in a non-US stock exchange), open a bank account which is not in USD (I believe that’s possible in some banks in the US) and convert your savings to that currency and deposit them there, buy Gold (thus in practice converting you savings to a ancient currency not controlled by any state). That is, if you have savings. If you don’t, well, you’ll mostly have to weather it: concrete non-perishable stuff has the same utility value no matter what the dollar value is, so your home is your home (if you’re lucky enough to own it) thus its worth to you is the same whatever it’s supposed dollar value is, and as others said “canned goods and cigarettes” too keep their value no matter what the USD value says.
As for how to make money from it, as somebody else said, “forex gambling”, more specifically derivatives on cross-currency pairs such as Futures on USDEUR. However that stuff is risk: Will USD hyperinflation really happen or will it be something milder? When will it happen, precisely? Derivatives move like crazy and things like Futures can result in margin calls (basically you have to give them more money) if they move against the direction you’re betting,
Back when I lived in Britain I avoided the 20% crash of the British Pound from the Leave Referendum results by having most of my savings in Gold and Euros, so in pounds it could be said I made a 20% profit in a couple of days (basically the week when the results came out), though now I’m in the Eurozone and, not even being a Briton have no relation to that country and don’t actually care about about the value of my savings in British Pounds, so that week I didn’t really made any profit in Euros. That said, over the years (the money is still there) that investment in Gold has gone up in value quite a lot even in Euros.
That said most of it was the product of me simply distrusting Britain and the British Pound as a safe store of value hence already keeping a big chunk of my savings outside it, though I did move some more just before the Leave Referendum results came out just in case.
So in summary: just getting your savings out of the USD merely to another currency will protect them, whilst Gold over the long term will probably make you a bit of profit (certainly in USD due the mismanagement of the US Economy). Big profits can only come from forex gambling, but so do big losses as derivatives are much more risky that just holding the underlying assets (in this case, some foreign currency you bought with dollars).
Don’t. Remember the classic
markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent
This is already being written down in the history books because of how devastating it is at home and abroad. You can look up Trump-Futanari inflation if you don’t believe me.
Hmm. Guess I shouldn’t have invested my kids’ college fund in futanari bonds after all.
Everyone knows futanari bonds are a bad idea! You gotta flip your futanaris frequently!
Interest rates dropping, prepare for inflation, and prices, to surge.
PSA for those needing the reminder: Anyone with any savings should be keeping it in a brokerage account (eg Fidelity, eTrade, Vanguard, etc). Savings accounts at banks don’t pay you anywhere near enough interest to keep up with inflation. But with a brokerage you can put that money into a managed fund, which is in turn investing it into the parts of the economy where all the value is going, returning that value to you at like 5%-20% per year. It doesn’t need to be a 401K account connected to your workplace, it can just be a standalone account with regular tax. Even after the gains tax it’s like an order more growth than a savings account and usually outpaces real inflation. Even if the fund’s holdings include things you don’t find 100% ethical, it’s likely what a bank is investing your savings account money in anyway - Just without sharing the profits with you.
Are there enough shares for everybody to buy? If not and people only own index funds then where do those funds put the money?
Stocks are arbitrary units of corporate account and companies always want new investors, if there’s so much demand for their stock that there’s no supply they just issue more stock. But open-ended mutual funds - The type I’d recommend investing in - Aren’t priced by share because they aren’t traded on exchanges. They’re priced by a similar metric called Net Asset Value or NAV. Investopedia explains it better than I can.
companies always want new investors
They also buy back shares and reduce their shareholders.
The ROI will drop if companies have too much money.
But open-ended mutual funds
That just shifts my question. What can those funds buy?
It depends on the fund. Mutual funds have a prospectus that defines exactly how they’ll behave. Some funds leave room for management discretion while others are almost mechanical. They make their holdings public, so you know exactly what they’re composed of. I don’t think there’s much limit on what they could buy, it’s defined more by the strategy of the fund.
Does that answer your question? I wasn’t really even sure what you were asking just doing my best to be informative.
It’s helpful but I am worried about something else. Imagine an Island with 100 inhabitants and $10 each. If there are only 2 companies for $200, what do the other 60 people buy to avoid inflation?
As they’re a completely disenfranchised social majority on an island with a population tiny enough for everyone to know everyone else and a robust enough technological base to justify something like a stock market, they buy nothing and successfully institute anarcho-communism! :D
But to take the scenario seriously: Assuming that there was still demand for the shares among the population, the people seeking shares would offer more money for them than they were originally worth, until some of the people who own them considered it worthwhile to sell. If this alone doesn’t sate demand then the two stock-issuing companies would almost certainly issue more stock, ideally enough for them to raise more funding but not so much that the increased supply overwhelms demand and drops the price per share. They could also split the stock: Every share in circulation instantly becomes two shares, worth half of an older share at time of split. Depends on which market outcomes the companies are seeking. But basically the response to your scenario is that stock issuance is completely arbitrary (Within regulatory limits, whatever they may be) and up to the issuing company, and a market with demand is a market that will be offered shares because to a company it’s just fundraising waiting for the taking. The only thing they can’t do is disappear stock in circulation, if they wanted to remove stock for some reason they’d have to buy it back from holders on the market.
What a fun game. The only way to earn interest is to fund capitalistic ventures that got us here in the first place.
The Greenback has really outlived it’s purpose as world reserve currency because the government and central bank can’t be trusted with fiscal discipline. It may improve post Trump
I fear the dollar will drop so precipitously Trump will be “forced” to make TrumpCoin our official currency [forced on purpose], like a shitty version of EU’s proposed digital currency
That would be truely outrageous. Luckily he can’t do that.
Who is going to stop him?
The Executive can’t take over the monetary decisions of the country, even if the monetary decision is to replace the currency with one the executive just happens to control and put out as private party. Congress is the one with the power to tax, spend, and create money per Article 1.
Yeah, but who enforces the constitution right now in the US? The executive can’t start wars either.
What would practically happen if Trump and the White House just declared they did it, and the oligarchs just went and had the tech made to enforce it?
Ah yes, the “Biden economy” at work. 🙄
I think you’ll find it’s a big beautiful drop. A tremendous drop. Everyone is saying it’s the best drop ever!
Y’all remember dollar menus at fast food places?
I remember a sack of potatoes costing 1.50. I remember rent costing 450. I remember chicken being less than 1 dollar per lb. I can even remember when healthcare and higher education was a reasonable price. But hey! At least the rich are getting richer
and dollar per gallon gas
Which is what got us into the whole climate mess. Pollution being too cheap
Why would Sleepy Joe Biden do this? 🤷
The was on the Project 2025 roadmap. Cheaper to export things when the dollar is cheaper.
And inflates away the massive US debt.
The heritage foundation is an enemy of the American people
Let’s not limit it to the US
Are we great yet?
No. You must suffer a little more for us to be great.
I’m tired of winning boss
